Brian Mitchell at eCoustics.com wrote an article titled “Ten Reasons why 3-d TV May Fail“ about the problems with 3-D technology in the home.  Are people really going to want to put on 3-D glasses every time they watch TV?  Are existing systems compatible with 3-D or are we going to have change every component?   What about the lack of content?  While he is not saying that it will fail, he makes several valid points as to why it could. 

Stephen Hopkins over at CEPro.com feels that Mitchell is blaspheming and counters with the article “Ten Reasons Why 3d Will Succeed.”  He argues each of Mitchell’s points such as stating that 3-D glasses are temporary until auto-stereoscopic technologies develop, but he does not really say why  3-D will succeed.  Hopkins subtitled his article “Why 3D will find an important niche in the home theater experience” but fails to address this at all.

Take a moment to read through the articles.  Both Mitchell and Hopkins make good arguments, but they missed a few.  Here are my top 5 reasons why 3d could go either way.

1.  Avatar looked amazing in 3-D on a giant screen. It was very realistic and totally immersive.  At times I had physical reactions like motion sickness and vertigo because of what was happening on the big screen.  I do not think the move is going to look the same or even come close to achieving the same effect on my 47″ TV.  So how big a TV do you need to have until a 3-D movie or program gives you the same feeling it did in the theater – 50″, 65″, 80″, 100″? 

2.  I already wear glasses to watch TV as do millions of people.  I hate having to put on a second pair to watch a movie in the theater.   Doing that at home just to watch TV?  No way!  If I only had to wear one pair?  Maybe. 

3.  Right now content is limited but that will change.  The bigger question is will 3-D strive to be the standard format or is it going to become a feature used for special events and movies?  Is everything I watch like the local news eventually going to be in 3-D or will only programs like the Super Bowl or the Olympics be broadcast in 3-D?  I think 3-D will be adopted more quickly if only certain programs are in 3-D.   

4.  Gamers will be among the earliest adopters and will become the biggest proponents for 3-D technology.  Gaming, even more so than movies, is all about achieving an immersive experience.  Gamers want to lose themselves in the Game and that is what 3-D does the best. 

5.  The novelty might wear off quickly.  3-D movies have come and gone for decades.  We stand at the cusp where 3-D moves from being a gimmick to a legitimate story telling tool, but for every “Avatar” there will be a dozen “Clash of the Titans.”  Home technology fads come and go – it is too early to tell if 3-D will work in the home.